植耀輝: 美CPI符預期美股揚 本周焦點央行議息
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周五(10日)繼續有好表現。雖然11月CPI升至6.8%,升幅為近39年來最高,但仍無阻投資者入市,標普500指數、道指及納指與前高位相距亦不多於4%,當中標普500指數之差距更只得0.7%。全周計,道指累升近4%,為今年3月以來最佳單周表現,標普與納指亦分別累升3.8%及3.6%,為2月份以來最佳。至於本周焦點肯定是聯儲局議息會議,聯儲局會否更「鷹」將會更受市場關注。另外歐洲央行、英倫銀行以至日本等均會舉行會議,相信本周股匯市場會相當波動。
港股方面,上周累升229點,總算中止連跌三星期之走勢,不過上周五(10日)表現卻相當不濟,下跌259點或1.07%,股份跌幅相當全面,成份股中阿里健康(00241.HK)及藥明生物(02269.HK)跌幅超過4%,濠賭股銀娛(00027.HK)及金沙中國(01928.HK)亦分別下跌2.9%及3.6%。公用股則有較佳表現,電能(00006.HK)及中電(00002.HK)均錄得升幅。
由於上周五美股造好,料有利今日(13日)港股表現。不過正如上文提到,本周多國央行將進行議息會議,加上內地亦會繼續公布經濟數據,相信大市觀望氣氛仍會持續,預期大市將繼續於24,000點水平上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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關注美國本周議息以及個人開支數據
耀才研究部稱,上周五(10日)美股三大股市收市全線向上,美國11月份消費物價指數(CPI)按年升幅由10月的6.2%加快至6.8%,符合市場預期,拜登稱物價上漲已見頂,並將以比預期更快的速度放緩,令市場估計聯儲局的加息周期以及力度將較預期短及低,支持股市反彈。
展望本周,美聯儲將於周三公布議息結果以及重要通脹指標個人開支價格指數,關注通脹會否持續於4%以上。中國中央經濟工作會議上周五閉幕,會中提到要適度超前開展基礎設施投資及綠色能源,不過亦再次強調「房住不炒」,基建及佈房板塊將個別發展。
從技術走勢上,指數暫時成功守住10天線23900點,以11月16日高位25,746點至11月30日低點23,175點起計,恆指黃金反彈0.5的目標將為24,433點,同時亦為20天線亦即保力加通道中軸的水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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