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光大新鴻基料恆指明年有機會挑戰27,500點水平
光大新鴻基發表明年投資展望,指出目前部分大型藍籌股仍處較低估值水平,一定程度上限制未來港股市場大幅向下的空間,惟外圍市況相對處於較高位置,疊加利率向上環境,外圍市場有機會對港股增添波動性因素,預期2022年具追落後空間,恆指有機會再度挑戰27,500點水平,國企指數下半年目標爲10,000點,而上證指數全年的目標爲3,800點。 光大新鴻基證券策略師伍禮賢表示,港股今年下半年未能充分受惠經濟復甦環境,走勢嚴重落後環球其他主要資本市場,爲明年追落後留下空間,隨着本港上市公司業績今年經歷低谷大幅反彈,預期明年盈利增長將趨向平穩,此爲估值進一步帶來支持。 他指出,明年港股將面對低利率環境趨勢面臨拐點,對資本市場流動性帶來考驗,料將具體表現在外圍經濟復甦是否具延續性,以及內地行業增長是否具穩定性,明年重點關注「內需消費穩經濟」、「精選金融抗通脹」及「潔淨能源享國策」等三大投資主題。 光大新鴻基預期,疫情受控程度、通脹預期變化,以及中美關係去向,將繼續主導資產市場表現,預計各國經濟增長表現將慢慢恢復至疫情前水平左右,同時油價及商品價格飆升推動通脹上升。 外匯策略師黃俊能預期,美匯指數於2022年初將繼續於高位徘徊,並有機會測試上方阻力約98,下方支持則爲92,惟相信美匯指數偏強的局面於聯儲局首次加息後將有所改變,屆時各外幣或會出現追落後的機會,特別是較高息的商品貨幣。
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