渣打下調內地明年經濟增長預測至5.3% 人民幣短期料進一步向上
渣打大中華及北亞首席經濟師丁爽發表報告,考慮到政策剩餘阻力,下調中國內地明年經濟增長預測,由5.6%降至5.3%。由於疫情反彈、政策收緊及「電荒」,以及宏觀政策正常化滯後,內地經濟今年第三季幾乎零增長。對投資、零售銷售、服務及生產的壓抑料延續至明年初。近期內地政府微調樓市及其他政策以防止經濟進一步下行,初步有穩定跡象。縱使如此,該行不預期內地放寬其嚴厲「清零」政策,或大幅改善宏觀及結構政策,直至明年中。消費及投資活動平平,經濟增長料傾向內地潛在估算5%至6%的下端。
不過,該行料政府將出手限制經濟下行空間。明年下半年內地將舉行「二十大」,為2023年初政府換屆做準備,料領導層不會容許經濟大幅下行致失業急增,該行料政府將為明年訂立5%或以上的增長目標,宏觀政策亦會配合達成該目標。
該行料未來數季房地產市場信貸狀況逐漸改善。由於信貸政策收緊,房地產貸款對總新增貸款佔比由2016年下半年的逾50%收縮至今年第三季的約15%。考慮歷史模式及近期對按揭的政策支持,這或谷底反彈。該行保守估算,2022年中房地產貸款對總新增貸款佔比回升至25%,該類貸款增長料由現時5%加快至2022年底的約10%。明年首季更佳融資環境料支持房地產投資不再收縮,中和對增長的風險。該行料內地明年下半年防疫措施放寬,將支持消費持續復甦。
渣打表示,內地明年政策逆風料消減,料監管收緊的速度及密度會調整以防範系統風險。該行並料明年人行指標利率維持不變,人行將擴大資產負債表以支持信貸增長。減息機會不大,因PPI對CPI通脹帶來傳導效應。在美國聯儲局潛在多次加息後,該行料人行在2023年底將會加息。此外,中國專注長期增長目標,並減少政策刺激的機會。
該行同時預期,受基本面如貿易盈餘創新高,資本流入等支持,人民幣短期進一步向上,但人民幣倘再升值,或引發人行加強逆周期措施。明年下半年人行與美聯儲政策走向分野,料致人民幣輕微轉弱。該行料明年首季人民幣升至6,3兌一美元,明年底回落至6.5。
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