匯豐環球私銀料恆指明年底反彈至28,030點 元宇宙等投資主題值得關注
匯豐環球私人銀行發表2022年投資展望報告,對中國股票和中國美元債券保持中性觀點,料恆生指數將於明年底反彈至28,030點,而恆生國企指數將恢復至10,270點。
匯豐環球私人銀行及財富管理亞洲區首席投資總監范卓雲預期,未來幾個月中國將會推出更多具針對性的政策寬鬆措施,包括降低存款準備金率,以提振內需和支持中小企業。政府有可能推出高達2萬億人民幣的科技革新和綠色投資刺激計劃,規模相當於國內生產總值的2%,可望支持2022年國內生產總值(GDP)增長5.6%。
范卓雲認為,投資者應該關注大趨勢及長期策略性投資目標,避免受短期市場噪音和政策不確定性影響長期投資部署。重大的結構性增長趨勢往往持續數十年,例如全球減碳轉型和數碼變革,將創造更多新的創科行業和增長機遇。對於投資者而言,在世界疫後開闢新局的大趨勢中尋找長期贏家至關重要,例如跟生物與基因科技變革、能源轉型、生物多樣性保護、元宇宙、自動化和人工智慧創新等投資主題都值得關注。
另外,該行預計,聯儲局在2022年6月至2023年9月期間將加息四次,但加息速度將較過往美國的緊縮週期緩慢。新冠變種病毒Omicron為全球供應鏈緊張帶來新的不確定性,增加了通脹回落時間可能推遲到2022年下半年的風險,預計聯儲局將從12月開始加快退市步伐,每月購債規模的縮減速度由目前150億美元增加一倍至300億美元,將為2022年6月和9月的兩次加息鋪路。
該行指,為了對沖政策收緊和通脹風險,維持對環球金融股和非必需消費品股票的偏高比重配置,並對環球工業股持偏低比重配置。為了減輕市場波動對組合回報的影響,該行通過偏高配置對沖基金,為投資組合加強抵禦下行壓力的保障,並開拓另類投資回報來源。
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