渣打下調本港今明兩年經濟增長預測 明年上半年失業率料跌至4%以下
渣打香港大中華區高級經濟師劉健恆等發表報告,下調今明兩年本港經濟增長預測,今年預測由6.9%下調至6.5%,明年預測由3%降至2.3%,反映因進口增幅跑贏出口,致淨出口短期帶來更大拖累;政策利好因素減退,特別是回歸更中性財政立場;更重要是,明年通關進展料緩慢及審慎,為本港復甦帶來更長期的上行限制。
市場對本港與內地今年12月或明年首季初免檢通關預期升溫,但該行料措施屬漸進。據媒體報道,首階段局限於深圳陸路口岸,入境旅客只可到訪廣東省,並有每日配額限制,優先予指定群組。全面通關料最快明年下半年才有機會實現。由於本港跟隨內地「清零」政策,料國際出行恢復將需要更長時間。
渣打稱,本港未來料迎來更好時光,明年2.3%經濟增長預測與今年持續復甦動力相呼應。明年增長相對放緩源於比較基數正常化,今年首季經濟出乎預期強勁,為明年首季帶來高基數。今年支持本港經濟的因素料在未來一年持續。隨著疫情後正常化廣泛推進,全球貿易增長料持續支持本港經濟,本地就業市場改善料支持本地消費。該行料明年上半年失業率將跌至低於4%,明年餘下時間料維持於該水平。
渣打亦修訂本港今明兩年通脹預測,今年消費物價指數(CPI)預測由原先1.1%上調至1.5%,主因先前紓困措施帶來的扭曲大於預期。相反,明年CPI年率預測由2.3%下調至2%,以反映基數較高,以及早前住宅樓價調整料傳導至租金表現。由於香港是服務業主導經濟體,本地消費價格較不受全球商品價格升溫及供應鏈干擾帶來的溢出效應所影響。該行料CPI成份如私宅租金、食品及雜項服務在2022年大致維持良性。
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