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《大行報告》瑞銀下調澳門2022及2023年賭收預測 反映貴賓廳下行
瑞銀發表研究報告,將2022至2023年澳門博彩總收入預測下調12%至13%,以反映貴賓廳收入下滑的預期,認為當局近期對博企加強監管,以及打擊中介人業務,顯示出政府或將不再容忍中介人商業模式運作。 該行估計,現時有約80%貴賓廳收入都來自中介人,而2019年中介人佔中場收入佔比僅5%至10%,估計部分需求將轉移至高利潤率的博企直營貴賓廳及高端中場細分市場。 瑞銀將明年賭收增長預測由67%下調至64%,達到2019年同期水平的約48%,明年中場收入增長預期則由原先76%上調至85%;貴賓廳收入料將按年下跌5%,對比此前預期上升40%。2023年賭收增長預測亦由60%下調至58%,中場收入料增長55%。 瑞銀指,隨著新酒店供應及基建改善的效果開始顯現,認為至2023年澳門中場博彩總收入將達到2019年水平的105%,又指現時對通關影響預期未有改變,認為在明年首季冬奧及兩會舉辦前內地政府都將維持較嚴格方針,預計澳門博彩總收入明年首季可達到2019年的28%,到明年第四季將升至2019年水平的68%。
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