《大行報告》高盛料澳門加強中介人審查 關注營運商責任及對中場賭收影響
高盛發表報告表示,基於預期澳門特區政府將加強對博彩中介人審查、兼且澳門終審法院早前作出終審判決,要求永利澳門(01128.HK)就賭廳多金投資者未能取回款項須承擔責任(承付貴賓廳客戶600萬元的提款責任),估計澳門博彩營運商將會降低涉貴賓廳相關佔比。澳門終審法院判決或會令博彩營運商未來可能要對中介人欠下投資者的任何未償債務承擔責任,若相關中介人未能償債,澳門法院裁決可能會對博彩業產生影響。
該行評估計澳門博彩營運商涉貴賓廳市的潛在風險敞口,指在新冠疫情爆發前,貴實廳貢獻行業的總體EBITDA佔比約14%,高盛料2023年貴實廳相關貢獻佔比會降至3%,而該行指2011年澳門貴實廳貢獻行業EBITDA佔比曾達73%,至2019年已回落至39%。該行亦留意到太陽城已決定關閉旗下澳門貴賓廳。
高盛指,從濠賭營運商中永利澳門(01128.HK)、銀娛(00027.HK)及新濠博亞(MLCO.US)涉貴賓廳對EBITDA的貢獻佔比較高,於2019年貴賓廳對EBITDA的貢獻佔比分別達25%、17%及15%,而金沙中國(01928.HK)相關佔比最少僅8%。
該行指,若中介賭廳未能向營運商償付債款,估計會對濠賭股的損益表帶來潛在約3億美元淨應收賬款及壞賬。該行假設澳門六家博彩運營商的應收賬款加起來,並假設80%與中介人有關,預計在今年上半年末預付給中介人的營運資金總額為8億美元,並留意到博彩運營商已提計56%的壞賬撥備,料會對濠賭股帶來潛在約3億美元淨應收賬款及壞賬。在運營商中,該行估計銀娛、永利澳門及金沙的資產負債表上的應收賬款淨額分別為8,100萬美元、7,100萬美元和6,200萬美元。
高盛認為總體而言,根據上述情況,濠賭股所面臨中介人風險看起來並不高,指其手頭現金充裕,在過往經驗而言,一些中介人流動性也可能溢出並推動中場市場增長,任何對中介人的嚴格審查和打擊也可能影響中場市場賭收 ,儘管該行認為影響將相當有限,但仍將密切關注局勢發展。(wl/u)
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