交銀國際(03329.HK):公用股已成為增長股
交銀國際(03329.HK)董事總經理兼首席策略師洪灝表示,長線佈局有利應對短期波動,相信新冠變種病毒Omicron不會導致經濟差過去年三月,但目前港股估值比當時更低,反映出市場的恐慌。他指,公用股已成為增長股,料能在股市下跌時展現抗跌能力。
洪灝認為,以基本面來看,明年美股盈利放緩無可避免,明年下半年通脹可能出現階段性放緩,美股回調的機會大,繼續追捧美股的風險和回報率不相稱,不過認為美國出現衰退的機會不大。他說,港股中的大型科網股估值已經反映了監管風險,估值水平甚至比一些公用股低。
交銀國際預計,明年全國房地產銷售額會按年下降約10%,建議短期內避免投資大部分內地中小型房企股票,目前估值低迷是吸納優質股的機會,首選碧桂園服務(06098.HK),目標價80.57元,持「買入」評級。該行指,「國貨潮」逐漸減弱,一些國際體育品牌銷售正恢復增長,利好其於中國的經銷商,例如滔博(06110.HK)和寶勝國際(03813.HK),反觀安踏(02020.HK)和李寧(02331.HK)利潤將會放緩。
交銀國際指,過去四個季度內地銀行不良貸款率按季持續下降,將支持內銀利潤在明年增長,又預計該行所覆蓋的在線貸款平台將在明年恢復約26%的貸款增長。該行預計,明年上市壽險公司盈利按年增長約10%。
該行指,今年需求快速增長導致上游多晶硅料短缺、以及整個光伏產業鏈價格大幅上漲,預期今年年底前光伏裝機將放緩,隨著明年原材料短缺問題明顯緩解,裝機將加快。
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