科技股投資者需小心“利率衝擊”
債券收益率再次上升,警示科技投資者需要防範不受歡迎的意外。由於較高的利率往往會影響未來利潤的折現,估值最高的科技股往往受創最大,納斯達克100指數週一從創紀錄水平下跌1.2%就是明證。
該指數中表現最差的包括Crowdstrike(CRWD.US)、Atlassian(TEAM.US)和DocuSign(DOCU.US)這三家增長迅速但不盈利的公司。在增長潛力的支撐下,這三家公司的估值都很高,其基於預期的市銷率在23倍至38倍之間。週一該指數中的另一隻表現不佳的股票是Peloton Interactive(PTON.US),由於擔心增長放緩,該公司股價今年已大幅下挫。
如果利率繼續攀升,這些股票可能預演着一些高科技公司的未來。包括Anurag Rana在內的分析師週五在一份研究報告中寫道,在這種情況下,增長最快的軟件股明年的估值可能縮水20%以上。
高盛集團也有類似觀點:“避開那些完全基於長期增長預期來估值的快速增長公司,因爲它們更容易受到利率上升或營收令人失望的風險的影響。”
策略師David J . Kostin更青睞那些利潤率可靠的公司,比如萬事達(MA.US)、Meta Platforms(FB.US)、歐特克(ADSK.US)和Zoom視頻通訊(ZM.US)。Kostin在一份報告中稱,市場普遍預計萬事達2023年的利潤率爲47%,其他三家公司的利潤率在30%左右。根據Bloomberg的數據,基於未來12個月遠期銷售的估值,這些公司的估值也只有虧損科技公司的一半左右。
美國銀行也很謹慎。週一,以Michael Hartnett爲首的策略師在一份報告中寫道,投資者可以期待2022年出現“利率衝擊”,並指出加密貨幣和科技股出現了“最嚴重的泡沫”。
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