惠譽料十四五期間煤炭行業產能將進一步縮減
惠譽預計,「十四五」期間,煤炭行業產能將進一步縮減,產能集中在資源豐富、佔據成本優勢的地區,鋼鐵產能整合將進一步由大型國有企業領導,實現區域性的集中度提升,水泥產能將有一部分向東南亞地區轉移。
該行估計,明年全國基建和製造業投資如能達到中個位數增長,可部分減少房地產投資放緩,明對鋼鐵,水泥需求的影響,預計動力煤價格在十四五期間保持在低於今年平均價格,但遠高於合理區間,這將爲煤炭企業提供縮表去槓桿的時間和空間。
惠譽認爲,中國建築行業高度分散,房地產開發商的違約風險上升,將對部分高度依賴住宅地產訂單的民營地產商造成直接衝擊,惠譽授評的央企建築承包商的訂單相對而言更加多元化,所受衝擊預計將較爲有限。
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