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《大行報告》中金料國指未來一年有雙位數上行空間 薦騰訊及李寧等16只中資首選
中金髮表海外中資股2022年展望報告表示,經過2021年初曇花一現的衝高後,港股尤其是恆生科技指數爲代表的互聯網科技板塊2月以來持續回調,落後全球。該行展望2022年,儘管內外部不確定性依然存在,但該行認爲海外中資股比較優勢已經顯現,尤其是價格回落背景下的中下遊和成長板塊可能成爲主線。在未來12月時間,該行預計恆生國企和MSCI中國指數均有雙位數的上行空間,主要來自約9%的盈利貢獻和8%及5%的估值擴張。 該行認爲,內地政策環境可能往相對更有利方向發展。主要是考慮到內地政策寬鬆空間和餘地相對更大。相比海外,中國目前更多是滯而非脹,上遊價格壓力緩解將使得政策餘地和騰挪空間更大。第二是監管舉措密集的階段可能已經過去,雖然後續不排除仍可能有擾動,但可能更多是已出臺政策的落地。第三是上遊價格壓力明顯緩解,有助於中下遊盈利的修復。該行預計海外中資股2022年有望實現盈利增長7.2%。 報告指,港股作爲投資中國新經濟的「橋頭堡」,其優勢在於能夠提供沒那麼直接受損於中國和全球增長回落以及價格壓力、同時估值具有比較優勢的穩健增長選擇。中金指港股進入佈局區,逐步偏向中下遊;把握修復行情和產業升級等長期趨勢,建議超配互聯網、汽車及零部件、部分電商、消費者服務、食品飲料與餐飲、生物科技、和中資銀行;低配上遊煤炭、原材料和部分交通運輸等。 該行同時列出海外中資股首選組合名單,包括騰訊(00700.HK)、碧桂園服務(06098.HK)、舜宇光學(02382.HK)、工行(01398.HK)、李寧(02331.HK)、蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)、康師傅(00322.HK)、友邦(01299.HK)、泰格醫藥(03347.HK)、雅迪控股(01585.HK)、海爾智家(06690.HK)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、再鼎醫藥-S(09688.HK)、敏華控股(01999.HK)、信達生物(01801.HK)及安踏體育(02020.HK)。
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