植耀輝: 美股十月表現佳 港股變數多續觀望
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股三大指數上周五(10月29日)續見升幅,當中道指上升0.25%,標普500指數及納指分別上升0.19%及0.33%。全月計美股表現相當不俗,納指累升7.3%,道指及標普500指數分別累升7.3%及6.9%。本周焦點則集中於聯儲局議息會議及上月非農就業數據表現。
港股方面,恆指在連升四周後「斷纜」,上周轉跌749點或2.9%,不過10月份累計仍升801點或3.3%,總算扭轉連跌四個月之勢頭。以表現比亞迪(01211.HK)最佳,累升22%,其次為吉利(00175.HK),上升21%。較令人意外的是匯控(00005.HK)為10月份表現第三佳成份股,升幅達到15%;恆生銀行(00011.HK)升幅亦達到11.7%,為恆指表現第五佳股份。
至於恆指能否維持升勢,筆者看法則相對較保守。由於港股今年明顯跑輸外圍,除非新經濟股再有不利消息傳出,否則港股下跌空間料不大,只是要再有好表現,關鍵在於未來有否上升催化劑。而短期港股去向亦充滿挑戰,本周聯儲局議息會議開始收水似事在必行,但主席鮑威爾之言論或多或少對投資氣氛會多更多啟示,另外未來一段時間陸續會有科技巨企公布季績,表現亦會影響大市氣氛。加上內地監管消息以及恆大(03333.HK)事件之後續,相信港股短期暫於25,000點至26,000點水平上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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展望美聯儲議息及中美經濟數據
耀才研究部稱,上周五(10月29日)美股三大指數齊創收市新高,美國與歐盟解決鋼鋁關稅爭議,利好市場氣氛。展望本周,首要焦點是聯儲局周二及三的議息會,留意縮減購債的力度以及會否提供加息時間表。另外周五(5日)的美國10月非農業職位亦同為重磅數據。中國將發佈財新10月製造業PMI,早前的官方製造業PMI報49.2,已遜預期的49.7,亦連續第二個月處於收縮區間。比亞迪(01211.HK)配售5,000萬股新股,每股配售價276元,集資約138億元。配售價較前收市價折讓6.95%;保利協鑫(03800.HK)因無法在限期前披露業績而停牌半年,今日(11月1日)復牌。
從技術走勢上,恆指於10月20日至26日形成了島形頂的利淡訊號,目前回試20天及50天線支持,向下突破風險較大。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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