一文綜合大行於中國平安(02318.HK)公布季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
中國平安(02318.HK)今早股價受壓,盤中曾低見57.1元一度下滑4.5%。大和指中國平安今年第三季壽險及健康險新業務價值按年跌幅擴大至34%,代理人數按季下滑20%,指保險代理改革持續令人失望,指公司更將今年新業務價值指引大幅下調,由原來「正面增長」下修至「雙位數字跌幅」,維持「持有」評級。匯豐環球研究亦引述平安管理層指調低對其今年壽險及健康險新業務價值預測至「雙位數字跌幅」,並不提供明年新業務價值預測指引。
中國平安昨公布首三季業績,純利按年倒退20.8%至816.38億元人民幣,每股盈利4.63元人民幣。期內毛承保保費5.6%至5,917.65億元人民幣。營運利潤按年增長9.2%至1,187.37億元人民幣。年化營運股本回報率20.3%。中國平安首九個月壽險及健康險新業務價值按年倒退17.8%至352.37億元人民幣,產險業務綜合成本率97.3%,較去年同期下降1.8個百分點。9月底止個人客戶數2.25億戶,按年增加3.1%。互聯網用戶量6.34億戶,按年增加6%。
【上季新業務價值 跌幅擴大遜預期】
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,中國平安今年第三季業績好壞參半,稅後盈利錄370億人民幣按年升7%,主受銀行資產管理業務錄強勁增長,但旗下壽險及健康險新業務價值按年倒退34%,主要受代理人數收縮所拖累,表現疲弱。
瑞信表示,中國平安今年首九個月壽險及健康險新業務價值按年倒退34%,即今年第三季按年下滑34%,主要受毛利受壓等因素所拖累,保險經紀人數亦按季下滑20%,公司管理層亦下修全年度壽險及健康險新業務價值指引至佶位數字跌幅(該行料將下滑18%),下調對中國平安目標價由85元降至80元,維持「跑贏大市」評級。
本網綜合10間券商列出對其投資評級及目標價:
券商|評級|目標價(港元)
摩根大通|增持|100元
匯豐環球研究|買入|94元
高盛|買入|94元
野村|買入|95.18->93.28元
花旗|買入|93元
瑞銀|買入|90->88元
里昂|買入|83元
瑞信|跑贏大市 |85->80元
摩根士丹利|增持|82元
大和|持有|58元
券商|觀點
摩根大通|第三季代理人人數續降,沒有額外撥備顯示有充足償付能力
匯豐環球研究|2021年新業務價值至少「雙位數下降」,未能對明年業務增長作指引
高盛| 第三季盈利增長超預期,下調2021年代理人數及新業務價值指引
野村|第三季盈利增長略超預期,新業務價值和收益均未達標
花旗|第三季業績好壞參半,新業務價值增長疲軟
瑞銀|新業務價值符預期,料房地產風險可控
里昂|第三季新業務價值增長略低於預期,將2021-2023年新業務價值預測下調5%-9%
瑞信|新業務價值增長遜預期,第三季盈利增長基本穩定
摩根士丹利|壽險及健康險新業務價值疲弱
大和|保險代理改革持續令人失望
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