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中信證券:預計2022年下半年全球疫情或可實現常態化,通脹或可逐步回落到疫情前較爲溫和的水平
格隆匯 10-27 08:59
格隆匯10月27日丨中信證券指出,當前推升全球通脹的主要因素已經從需求增長切換爲供應鏈瓶頸,通過對全球產能不足、運輸能力受挫以及供應鏈下遊庫存低位等供應鏈問題的分析,我們認爲勞動力短缺是制約當前全球供應鏈修復的關鍵所在。從疫情角度看,明年下半年全球疫苗接種率或將有較大提升,各國間的差異也將有所收斂。預計2022年下半年全球疫情或可實現常態化,屆時勞動力市場缺口將減小,進而推動供應鏈得到明顯改善,同時通脹或可逐步回落到疫情前較爲溫和的水平。
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