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《季績前瞻》券商料中國平安(02318.HK)第三季新業務價值跌近三成 關注壽險改革進展
阿思達克 10-20 15:19
中國平安(02318.HK)將於下周三(27日)公布第三季業績,由於內地疫情反覆、公司持續受到內地保險代理人數下降及進行相關壽險改革(提升代理質素),影響了公司銷售長期保障產品,本網綜合4間券商預期,其第三季壽險及健康險新業務價值介乎291.5億元人民幣(下同)至308.5億元,較2020年同期的428.44億元,按年倒退28%至32%。 市場將關注中國平安旗下壽險改革進展、及對內房投資風險(會否需進行減值撥備),集團會否調整今年全年新業務價值正增長的指引等。 【新業務價值 料錄按年倒退】 野村發表報告預期中國平安今年第三季新業務價值按年跌30%,按季表現大致穩定,明年首季則面對較高基數的挑戰。預期今年下半年會延續上半年的跌勢,料中國平安今年新業務價值將跌12%。該行下調中國平安今年稅後經營溢利及純利預測分別2.8%及3.5%,以反映股票市場回報較弱的表現,以及陸金所可轉債按市價入賬虧損上升。 瑞信估計中國平安今年首九個月新業務價值按年跌17%,即意味今年第三季跌32%,受累於市場疲弱及毛利率受壓。該行估計中國平安需要投資金融科技域、上季A股表現欠佳、科技業務利潤會受壓(投資陸金所發行的可轉債按市價計料錄虧損),估計第三季盈利表現會受到影響。 --------------------------------------------------------------- 本網綜合4間券商預期,其第三季壽險及健康險新業務價值介乎291.5億元人民幣(下同)至308.5億元,較2020年同期的428.44億元,按年倒退28%至32%。 券商│今年第三季壽險及健康險新業務價值預測(人民幣)│按年變幅 瑞信|291.5億元|-32% 野村|300億元|-30% 建銀國際|308.5億元|-28% 按中國平安2020年第三季壽險及健康險新業務價值428.44億元人民幣計算
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