《大行報告》大摩上調「三桶油」目標價 首選中石油(00857.HK)
摩根士丹利發表報告指,歷史上油價與油股股價的背道而馳,主要是反映市場對油價走勢看法的堅定程度低,不過兩者在經過一段時間分歧後最終會趨於一致。而目前油價與油股股價的分歧已超過20個月,為過去十年最長時間的背離及最闊的差距。
該行認為,油股股價上升錨定油價,較油價下跌接近油股股價較有可能發生,主要由於石油市場正從需求約束轉為供應約束市場。而全球上游資本的紀律導致油市趨緊,布蘭特油價已升每桶80美元,相信只要供應方的ESG運動持續,油市或會繼續收緊從而支撐油價。因此,該行預計未來數月油股股價將錨定在高油價上。
大摩將今明兩年原油價格預測分別調升至每桶69.3美元及69.8美元,並調升中資三大油股目標價及盈利預測。其中,中石油(00857.HK)今明兩年盈利預測調升17%及39%,股份目標價由4.65元升至5.33元;中石化(00386.HK)盈利預測調升3%及8%,股份目標價由5.61元升至5.73元;中海油(00883.HK)盈利預測調升8%及20%,股份目標價由12.3元升至13元,三企評級均為「增持」。三桶油中,中石油繼續為首選。
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