《大行報告》瑞銀:對內銀下半年淨息差及資產質素更審慎
瑞銀發表研究報告指,留意到市場對房地產開發商信貸風險及金融體系風險蔓延的擔憂日益增加,或進一步拖累下半年的淨息差表現,資產質量亦可能惡化,因此重新調整對內地銀行業基本面看法,將今明兩年內銀收入預測下調2.5%及2.9%,並將淨息差預期下調4個基點。
瑞銀指出,基於基數效應減弱,預計內地銀行下半年平均盈利增長將由上半年的15.6%,放緩至3%,全年平均增長9.2%。該行認為內銀行業引發重新評級的催化劑有限,預計銀行估值將保持區間波動,在淨息差前景走弱和儲備釋放減少等因素下,將中行(03988.HK)、工行(01398.HK)及農行(01288.HK)的評級由「買入」下調至「中性」,並將重農行(03618.HK)由「中性」下調至「沽售」,同時將今明兩年行業平均撥備前利潤預測下調2.8%及3.3%。
瑞銀認為,內地下半年將面臨更多來自樓市、出口、消費放緩以及銀行盈利低基數效應減弱的增長阻力,對銀行業抱更審慎態度。
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