郭思治: 10月初旬不妨先稍作觀望
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,踏進10月份,不明因素仍會持續困擾整個市場,首先,需關注的是恆大(03333.HK)債務問題,有消息指部份境外債權人未能如期收取到期之債券利息,由於有30日限期,故恆大仍有時間去解決相關問題,惟一旦限期過後仍未能解決,則技術上已屬違約,其時對整個市場將帶來一定衝擊,由於恆大債務龐大,相當問題該不能在短時間內解決。
另外,亦需留意美股之走勢,道指今年首個高位為5月10日之35,091點,其後反覆回落至6月18日之低位33,271點,惟在龐大資金流主導下,道指又再上升,且更於8月16日再創歷史新高至35,631點,但由此刻開始,美股之表現漸趨反覆,在回吐沽壓湧現下,整個美股卒再掉頭回落,道指更於10月2日一度跌至33,785點,雖其後大幅反彈至34,326點收市,但值得注意的是,一旦沽壓再現,道指可能會再度回落,而較關鍵的支持該為6月18日之低位33,271點,因一旦此防線有失,即意味著美股可能會漸進入新一潮之跌浪,畢竟道指自2020年3月23日低位18,213點開始之大升浪,至2021年8月16日高位35,631點止計,累積升幅已達17,418點或95.6%,論幅度實已不算少。
由於不明因素仍持續,故在10月初旬,不防先稍作觀望。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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