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罕见!2万亿茅台涨停,周期股却受“惊吓”,风格切换完成?

白酒和消费回来了?这恐怕是今天上午很多股民直观感受。与此同时,上述股票的走强却“吓坏”了周期股,有色等板块暴挫7%。市场风格难道又要大切换?

9月27日,沪指早盘高开低走,盘中大幅回落跌逾1%,再度失守3600点;深成指临近午盘亦跳水翻绿,创业板指盘中大幅走高,随后涨幅明显收窄;两市板块多数走低,有色、钢铁、煤炭等周期板块大幅下挫,酒类股逆市强势拉升。

截至午间收盘,沪指跌1.3%报3565.94点,深成指跌0.55%,创业板指涨0.43%。两市合计成交9571亿元,北向资金净流入19.1亿元。

白酒又回来了?指数两天暴涨逾10% 两万亿茅台盘中涨停

行情数据显示,白酒股今天迎来罕见暴涨,中信白酒指数暴涨超过8%,算上上周五,两天时间该指数暴涨超过10%,呈现旱地拔葱之势。

具体来看,今天上午酒类股近乎全线大涨。

古井贡酒、泸州老窖涨停。市值在2万亿以上的贵州茅台盘中也一度涨停,截至上午收盘,上涨9.50%,报1855元。

此番白酒股暴涨并没有什么明显征兆,可谓突然。

对此,华夏基金认为,白酒板块大涨受到两个重要催化因素影响:茅台股东会新董事长表达解决渠道加价的决心;泸州老窖股权激励超预期,带动有激励预期的其他白酒个股也跟随上涨。综上,建议投资者关注四季度消费板块投资机会,消费板块部分龙头经过前期下跌和估值消化后,底部特征越来越明显,四季度阶段性走强可能性较高。

而在白酒暴涨的同时,周期股似乎“闻到”了什么气息,突然暴跌。早盘有色金属板块暴跌超过7%,钢铁板块暴跌超过5%。周期股的集体走低也带动上证指数大幅下跌,该指数上午跌幅超过1%。

北上资金近日抄底白酒龙头

相较于一些科技类企业,由于白酒行业商业模式相对较简单,机构对白酒类上市公司调研频率一向不算高,但这不影响机构对这类股票的偏爱。

据Wind数据,今年7月以来近3个月的时间,机构仅调研了洋河股份、金徽酒、迎驾贡酒等少数白酒A股上市公司。

在7月份对洋河股份进行调研时,机构问及了洋河股份的内部机制、发展战略、营销方面等多个方面的问题。

在9月份调研迎驾贡酒时,机构问及迎驾贡酒洞藏系列产品的问题,迎驾贡酒回复称,目前公司主推洞16、洞20,公司主销洞6、洞9。对于2季度省内增速亮眼的原因,公司回复称,主要是以生态洞藏为代表的中高档白酒较快增长。

由于目前尚未披露三季报,因此无法全面获知基金等机构在7月以来的对白酒股的配置概况。

不过,由于龙头白酒股贵州茅台和五粮液9月以来持续登上陆股通龙虎榜,北上资金的对白酒股的配置态度可窥见一二。

据Wind数据,9月以来至上周五,期间陆股通开通的14个交易日里,贵州茅台和五粮液每日都登上陆股通龙虎榜。进一步的数据显示,9月以来,北上资金总体净买入五粮液和贵州茅台,净买入五粮液8.9亿元,净买入贵州茅台6.42亿元。

不过,上述总体净买入的过程并非一帆风顺,比如贵州茅台在9月6日至9月15日的8个交易日里有7个交易日净卖出。两只龙头白酒股获北上资金青睐的情形在最近几个交易日表现得更为明显一些,比如五粮液在最近3个交易日连续获得北上资金净买入,其中上周五净买入额高达14.24 亿元。

周期还是消费?

周期还是消费?在今年的A股市场上,一直都是投资者讨论的话题,今天上午白酒暴涨后,周期股转而重挫,再一次将这一话题推上风口浪尖。

在今年以来多数时间,周期股表现强于消费股,而在2020年,则是白酒为代表的消费股明显领跑,两大主线上的资金似乎是在来换切换,推动行情向纵深发展,不过,市场从来都是变化万千,未来一段时间,是否会是白酒为代表的消费股王者归来,仍值得观察。

这里面消费类ETF份额的变化可以说明一定的问题。

据记者统计,股票开放式基金中,不少带“消费”字眼的ETF基金9月以来份额有较明显增长,不过同期也有不少带“消费”字眼的ETF基金份额有减少,两者之间也有分化。

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