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恆大(03333.HK)潛在違約 加拿大皇家銀行:市場過分憂慮金融危機重演
阿思達克 09-24 12:35
加拿大皇家銀行財富管理認為,中國恆大(03333.HK)潛在違約的規模及其對龐大的中國房地產開發行業的影響,可能會為全球增長帶來長期不利影響。但該行認為,從宏觀經濟狀況和中國政策彈性方面而言,市場擔心2008年環球金融危機、甚至1990年代後期亞洲金融風暴重演的憂慮可能被嚴重誇大。 該行指出,對大多數發達市場證券而言,恆大違約的潛在直接影響似乎不太可能發生,投資者不會被迫出售其他持股以籌集資金。 此外,該行指中國的預算因疫情而變得繃緊,但對管理恆大及其後果的能力影響不大。如果不增加債務和槓桿的複雜性,恆大在金融市場上的任何違約對國際的直接影響可能有限,反而對中國國內經濟的風險更高。若任其發展,令人擔心的是恆大問題會帶來惡性循環。 該行稱,中國當局已介入為市場提供額外的流動資金,相信決策者有能力解決體制和財政問題,將會阻止國內危機發生,以避免演變成國際金融事件。而隨著中國局勢的發展,股市可能會有調整和整合的趨勢,但預計最終會出現建設性的模式。
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