羅兵咸永道料內地當局有能力防範房地產行業風險傳播
市場關注恆大(03333.HK)等房企債務潛在違約風險對銀行業的影響,羅兵咸永道香港審計業務合夥人鄭善斌表示,不對個別企業發表意見,但見到房地產調控及環保宏觀政策影響下,房地產及礦業公司貸款整體不良率上升幅度為各行業中最顯著,房地產企業貸款增速更由去年同期的11%回落至2021年上半年的5%。
他認為,各項政策都是為了讓經濟平穩增長,提到中央表明要以經濟高質量發展化解金融系統性風險,相信監管機構有能力管控相關風險傳播。他又指,去年當局已加強銀行管控對房地產企業發放有息貸款,亦推出「三條紅線」政策,為房企提供明確標準,從而推動行業趨向健康發展,料有助降低經濟增長對房地產行業的依賴。
截至今年6月底,57家上市銀行撥貸比上升,信貸資產質量相關指標穩中向好,整體不良率下降至1.44%,逾期率降至1.45%。不良率在2%以上的有6家,均為城市商業銀行;另有8家城農商行不良率低於 1%。
談及「跨境理財通」措施,鄭善斌稱大灣區內人口眾多,對三地銀行是龐大發展機會,也是未來全國實施進一步跨境理財互通的良好試點及基礎,預期措施可於第四季正式出台,由於初期額度較少,推出後投資者亦需時熟悉,估計首階段經濟效益約30億元,中長期有助提升市場活力。
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