惠譽:下半年中國電價或上漲 惟料明年無法達到去年水平
惠譽評級表示,隨着內地許多地方政府取消對市場交易電力的價格暫不上浮的限制,今年下半年中國發電公司的實際煤電電價可能會上漲,電力供應緊張和煤價高企將驅動煤電電價上漲。
該機構指出,秦皇島動力煤現貨價格已較去年同期增長逾60%,但多數地區的電價漲幅可能不得超過基準價格的10%,意味着實際煤電價格漲幅不會高於18%,而此前平均折價7%。惠譽預期,明年年度交易的電力價格將升高,而煤價將適度回落,這或將使點火價差有所恢復,但可能仍無法達到去年水平。
今年上半年,惠譽授評發行人的上市子公司採購成本增加20%至30%,純發電公司的營收增長逾20%,但EBITDA卻下滑,儘管現貨交易電價的折讓幅度降低,但中國的基準煤電價格無燃料成本傳導機制。本月廣東省的折讓後月度交易電價自8月的每兆瓦時2.5元和7月的18元降至零。
於上月,上海取消煤電市場價格暫不上浮的規定,西內蒙亦準許煤電現貨市場交易價格在基準上網電價的基礎上最高上浮10%,長期合同價格亦可以重新談判,寧夏回族自治區亦準許煤電市場價格在8月至12月期間最高上調10%。惠譽預期,未來會有更多省份採取與上海、內蒙古和寧夏相似的行動,預計中國發電公司的上網電價將上浮,但由於電價的漲幅遠低於燃料成本的漲幅,這隻能在較低程度上抵銷煤價上升對其利潤的影響。
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