《大行報告》大摩:若政府有任何重大公告或供應量增速加快 地產股可能遭降級
摩根士丹利發表報告指,供應是令本港住屋變得可負擔的最重要因素,由於近期樓市供應短缺,令該行基本情境下今明兩年的物業價格上升。不過,若政府有任何重大公告,或供應量增速加快,大摩稱本港地產股可能會遭到降級。
《路透》早前引述三位主要發展商和一位知情本港特區政府顧問報道,本港發展商獲告知,要運用資源及影響力維護國家利益,更要回饋社會,協助解決住屋短缺問題。大摩今年4月曾發表報告,稱最差情境為政府公布積極的供應目標,例如供應由目前的每年3.5萬個,增至超過10萬個。在此情境下,本港樓價至明年底估計或會下跌20%。至於基本情境下,今年樓價預測會上升9%,明年則升5%。
該行認為,供應是壓抑樓價上升及令住屋可負擔的最有力工具,而三個潛在解決供應的方案為農田轉換、填海和增加地積比。其中農田轉換近期已有所加快,如新地(00016.HK)收購了古洞新發展區首塊公開招標農地(歷時15年規劃)。
大摩提到,雖然本港發展商的基本面較收租股為佳,但發展商面對的監管壓力更大。發展商中,該行喜好新地、嘉里(00683.HK)及信置(00083.HK),多於恆地(00012.HK)、長實(01113.HK)及新世界(00017.HK),但強調任何監管風險將影響所有發展商,料或導致降級。
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