胡錫進暗示恆大(03333.HK)危機不應靠政府解決 料不會引發系統性金融風暴
內媒《環球時報》總編胡錫進在微博發文,指中國恆大(03333.HK)遭遇提供了警示,盲目擴張,輕率操弄金融,使用高槓桿,這些都是需要順風順水加運氣保駕護航的冒險。恆大在國家此輪調整前就把橡皮筋繃得太緊了,它其實規模越大負債率越高,也因此越脆弱,造成了一個危如累卵的格局。它能否挺過去,就由時間回答。
他表示,國家不會給企業出難題,故意置企業於困境,當企業正常經營遭遇市場逆風時,國家也會以規範的方式盡量幫它們紓困。然而國家需要對行業開展規範化調整時,也不會因為有的企業問題嚴重而投鼠忌器,對它們刻意遷就和保護。一旦問題爆雷,出事企業不能有自己「大到不能倒」的僥倖,它們必須有能力以市場方式自救。市場上最後留下來的都是基礎業績過硬、不怕風雨一時刮斷幾根樹杈的企業。
胡氏稱,個人希望恆大能渡過難關,每一個遭遇困境的企業,他都希望它們能上演「起死回生」的奇跡。因為它們活下來,對增加社會韌性的正面作用往往更大。但這個奇跡需要恆大和每一個一旦陷入險境的企業主要依靠自己的市場力量去創造。
他表示,看到有人說,恆大一旦破產,有可能成為雷曼兄弟倒閉那樣系統性金融風暴的導火索。他表示,相信不會,幾位相關專家亦向其表達了同樣的看法。恆大要倒也不是倒在了房地產業務上,中國並不存在發生房地產發生次貸危機的基本形勢,中國購房首付款的比例很高,二套房的首付比例尤其高,與美國當時的情況截然不同。
最後,他重申一個判斷,內地社會沒有讓恆大倒的力量推動,看恆大自己吧。
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