郭家耀: 恆大(03333.HK)危機發酵港股料波動 內房去槓桿壓力大利淡
獨立股評人郭家耀稱,美股隔晚(16日)先跌後反彈,大市早段受美債息上升影響,道指一度急跌超過200點,尾市跌幅顯著收窄,科技股表現強勢,納指逆市向上。美元走勢轉強,美國十年期債息回升至1.33厘水平,油價及金價反覆向下。港股預託證券大致向好,預料大市早段溫和高開。內地股市連日下跌,滬綜指高開低走,收市下跌1.3%,滬深兩市成交額繼續活躍。
港股表現持續弱勢,恆大(03333.HK)債務危機發酵,拖累整體大市氣氛,指數一度失守25,000點水平,尾市跌幅稍為收窄,成交亦略有增加。整體市場氣氛謹慎,預料短期反覆波動,指數將於24,800至26,000點水平徘徊。
另中國近年多番推出限制房地產市場過熱的措施,內地媒報道多個一線城市進一步收緊房貸。報道引述研究機構克而瑞針對的30個重點城市調查數據顯示,半數以上城市新申請房貸額度近日有所收緊,放款周期較上半年進一步拉長,北京有房貸申請人甚至被銀行通知「明年再來」,另有逾七成城市的房貸利率較上半年調升。
二手房貸款方面,該機構調查的城市中,有23個放款周期基本在3至6個月,超過六成更是近乎停貸。據報,杭州、武漢、長春、鄭州、昆明、南寧、合肥、重慶、東莞、惠州、佛山、長沙、濟南等城市,都出現二手房停貸或部分停貸的現象,而南寧、泰州、麗水等地,當地銀行宣布要嚴格審核購房客戶首期資金來源和還款能力等條件。由於房貸趨緊,內房銷售有放緩跡象,加上各大小融資渠道被壓縮,房企去槓桿壓力龐大,板塊估值將持續受壓。
(本人沒持有上述股份)~
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