惠譽:若恆大(03333.HK)違約將對眾多行業產生更廣泛影響
評級機構惠譽表示,若果中國恆大(03333.HK)違約,許多行業可能面臨更高的信用風險,認為違約將加劇房地產商之間的信貸兩極分化,並可能對一些規模較小的銀行造成不利影響,但相信對銀行業影響整體可控。
惠譽表示,上周已將恆大的信貸評級由「CCC+」連降三級至「CC」,表明認為出現某種違約的可能性,指出投資者對恆大信貸擔憂日益加劇,令內房信貸狀況亦變得兩極化,當中信貸指標較弱的開發商難以在債務市場中取得可持續的利率,使再融資風險增加。
恆大為中國三大開發商之一,雖然住宅市場高度分散,去年其市場份額僅為4%左右,惠譽認為恆大若違約對樓價造成重大壓力的風險仍很低,當局亦會致力避免事情發生。
惠譽預期,政府首要任務是推進恆大出售現有項目及權益,相關債務料可控,但預計潛在買方仍會避免收購對運營或信譽造成任何不利影響。
至於銀行通過信託貸款直接向恆大提供貸款和債券,以及表外理財產品的敞口,截至上半年相關負債涉及約5,720億元人民幣,另外來自供應商的應付款項敞口料涉及約6,670億元人民幣。惠譽預料,對恆大或其他信貸表現較弱的開發商敞口較高的小型銀行,可能面臨不良貸款(NPL)大幅增加。
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