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《大行報告》中金:內地動力煤庫存不斷減少 料火電廠成本近期趨升及普遍虧損
中金髮表報告指,目前需求預期回落是決定大宗商品趨勢的關鍵因素,原油等海外品種表現較弱,而從產能約束到產量限制的轉換可能會有短期波動,成爲鋼材,煤炭和電解鋁等第二梯隊風險溢價的主要來源。 整體來看,供應預期可能再起波瀾,但可能難成趨勢。 中金指,最近動力煤庫存不斷走低,價格上漲動力亦較強。雖然煤炭產能批覆有所增加,但受環保,安檢與重大賽事活動影響,預計短期內供應端的約束可能會依然存在,增量較爲有限。冬天臨近,即需求旺季即將到來,但當前庫存天數僅約10天左右,因此電廠有較強補庫需求以維持正常運轉,從而支撐價格在高位。火電廠成本近期大幅上漲,普遍出現虧損,可能會對價格上漲動力有一定壓制。
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