一文綜合大行對於新地(00016.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
新鴻基地產(00016.HK)今早股價偏好,最新報111.1元升1.4%。瑞銀指新地全年度基礎溢利大致符合預期,雖然本港物業銷售較弱,但受到內地物業銷售強勁及租務業務收入所抵銷,而新地亦定下2022財年本港及內地物業合約銷售目標各450億及70億元,維持「買入」評級。
新地昨日(9日)收市後公布截至6月底止全年度業績,營業額按年升3%至852.62億元,接近本網綜合5間券商預測中位數的855.3億元。純利按年升14%至266.86億元;每股盈利9.21元。派每股末期息3.7元,每股全年度派息4.95元,和上年度持平,亦符合券商預測。新地全年度基礎溢利按年升1.7%至298.73億元,接近本網綜合5間券商預測中位數的304.55億元。來自物業銷售溢利按年升14%至209.94億元。
【全年度業績符預期 本財年銷售目標高】
美銀證券表示,新地2021財年業績符合預期,公司2022財年在本港合約銷售有強勁開始,不足兩個月內錄得92億元,以追回2021財年的不足,而集團就2022財年的銷售定下積極目標達450億元,對比2021財年僅230億元。該行亦認為投資者將開始預期上海環貿廣場分期落成帶來的租金收入,將提振在內地租務業務收入。該行因此預期新地每股盈利及派息將會在2024至2025財年強勁及持續增長。該行亦指管理層首度承諾穩定派息,認為新地估值較資產淨值折讓59%及股息率4.5厘具吸引力。該行上調新地目標價由139元升至146元,維持「買入」評級。
高盛指出,新地2021財年下半年實質每股盈利為4.28元,按年跌22%,亦較該行預測低23%,受發展項目盈利減少及非物業業務盈利遜預期。該行在計算新地2021財年下半年盈利表現後,考慮非物業業務表現遜預期,以及更新物業銷售業務落成指引,下調對新地2022財年及2023財年每股盈利預測12%及10%。基於新地目標派息率為40%至50%,該行亦下調2022財年及2023財年每股派息預測,均由5.25元降至4.95元。基於盈利及每股派息預測下調,以及稍為正面的資產淨值變動,下調對新地目標價由149元降至145元,維持「買入」評級。
海通國際指,新地在2022財年至2024財年平均住宅完成量為約260萬平方呎,高於2021財年的170萬平方呎,在本港住宅物業銷售動力較快下,高落成量意味高盈利能見度。縱使新地2021財年合約銷售僅按年跌31%至230億元,但預計2022財年及2023財年銷售將回升至400億美元,與2015財年至2020財年期間平均的406億元相若。海通國際上調對新地2022財年及2023財年盈利預測3%至4%,以反映對銷售預期的調整,因而上調對新地目標價由148.6元升至151.2元,維持「跑贏大市」評級。
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本網最新綜合10間券商對其投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
大和│買入│156.8元
海通國際│跑贏大市│148.6元->151.2元
美銀證券│買入│139元->146元
高盛│買入│149元->145元
瑞信│跑贏大市│156.6元->143.5元
摩根大通│增持│141.7元
花旗│買入│145.3元->139元
摩根士丹利│增持│135元
瑞銀│買入│130.4元
里昂│沽售│108.3元
券商│觀點
大和│基本因素穩固,等待市場認同
海通國際│上半年住宅完成量高企,意味未來盈利能見度高
美銀證券│全年度業績符預期,現財年合約銷售目標進取
高盛│2021財年下半年業績遜預期,受物業發展業務疲弱影響
瑞信│全年度業績大致附預期,料2022財年銷售將追上
摩根大通│內地租務貢獻佔比急速上升
花旗│本港銷售增加,租務增長穩定,重申「買入」
摩根士丹利│全年度每股盈利及每股派息持平
瑞銀│全年度業績符預期
里昂│盈利及派息增長能見度低
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