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植耀輝: 美股變化不大觀望數據 港股反彈續區間拉鋸
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,在「鮑公」(聯儲局主席鮑威爾)釋出鴿派言論後,美股繼續「Gogogo」,有傳媒便統計了標普500指數及納指今年「破頂」次數,截至執筆之時前者已53次創新高,納指亦達到32次。不過本周將迎來挑戰,就是非農數據表現。但以現時狀況,除非數據異常強勁,否則鮑公亦不會急於出手。隔晚(31日)美股則缺乏方向,三大指數均輕微下跌,跌幅均不足0.2%。 至於港股則繼續未見起色,昨日見有不俗反彈,但是否受MSCI指數調整影響,仍須觀察今日表現。另外,雖然業績期已告一段落,但左右港股因素仍多,上文提到之非農數據便屬其中之一。與此同時,內地昨日公布之PMI數據亦遜預期,市場亦開始憧憬內地或會有進一步措施,包括降準甚至減息等。不過,有關監管之消息仍會繼續困擾投資者,因此新經濟股似乎仍未是撈底時機。預期港股在逼近26,000點水平後會有較大阻力,暫繼續於25,000至26,000點水平上落。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) *************** 恆指20天線阻力大 北水錄得淨沽出逾60億人幣 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(31日)美股三大指數下跌,美國8月消費者信心指數降至113.8,為2月以來最低水平,遜於預期124及前值的125.1。投資者觀望周五的重磅非農數據,美匯指數隔晚曾低見92.395,是8月6日以來最低水平,金價則微升。行業消息方面,中國住建部承諾繼續穩定地價和房價,將加大房地產市場整治力度電商方面,中國擬加強電商監管,智慧財產權侵權或限制經營直至吊銷許可證。上交所向平安(02318.HK)發出監管工作函,平安指這是針對近期一些市場傳聞的例行問詢,平安股價昨日再創52周新低,低見57.65元。港股受MSCI香港及中國指數換馬在收市後生效所帶動,昨日高見25,878水平,不過已貼近了20天線阻力位,北水昨日於大市急升下流出66億元人民幣,為第五日錄得淨流出,金額亦為五個交易日當中最多的一天,資金繼續沽售騰訊(00700.HK)及美團(03690.HK),科網股能否繼續反彈成關鍵。 從技術走勢上看,指數未能突破20天線的水平,走勢仍然偏弱,意味著指數仍然依靠保力加通道中軸的水平向下順延,首要支持位仍然處於25,000點大關。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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