《大行報告》大和降中國平安(02318.HK)目標價至68元 評級「持有」
中國平安(02318.HK)在上半年新業務價值按年跌12%,核心壽險稅後經營溢利首錄按年下滑後,大和發表研究報告,引述管理層指希望市場對其經銷團隊改革給予更多時間及耐性。
報告稱,平安新業務價值質素惡化。在上半年新業務價值按年跌12%外,該行認為,平安新業務價值利潤率按年跌5.5個百分點屬更大問題。其最高盈利能力板塊僅貢獻平安人壽上半年新業務價值34%,較2018年上半年的67%佔比高位大幅下滑。這確認該行看法認為其經銷團隊仍未見隧道將盡的曙光。平安將新業務價值及相關利潤率弱勢,歸咎於商品化產品及來自線上保險的競爭。平安維持全年度新業務價值錄正增長的指引,意味下半年在基數極低下,新業務價值料按年增長約20%。據管理層稱,經銷團隊改革料需時三年,2021年是第二年。
大和表示,平安經銷團隊上半年在質化及量化指標均惡化。該行估算其經銷團隊7月進一步減少17.7萬人,改革未見正面跡象。該行料經銷團隊弱勢將持續至下半年。此外,該行稱,未來「償二代」改革料續對平安資本狀況及償付能力水平構成另一利淡因素。大和降平安目標價由78元下調至68元,評級「持有」。
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