《業績前瞻》券商料中行(03988.HK)上半年多賺逾5% 關注資產質素及淨息差
中國銀行(03988.HK)將於下周一(30日)公布今年中期業績,受惠於信貸成本下降、收入增長改善下,本網綜合4間券商預測,中行2021年上半年純利料介乎1,057.89億至1,089.46億元人民幣,較2020年同期1,009.17億元人民幣,按年上升4.8%至8%;中位數1,064.31億人民幣,按年升5.5%。
綜合5間券商預測,中行2021年上半年收入料介乎3,007.58億至3,064.98億元人民幣,較2020年同期2,869.83億人民幣,按年上升4.8%至6.8%;中位數3,034.7億人民幣,按年升5.7%。摩根大通指在內地按揭貸款收緊、五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調,投資者將關注中行淨息差收窄的情況,並留意其資產質素趨勢,包括不良貸款率表現等。
【信貸成本降 觀資產質素】
中金預測中行今年上半年純利按年升5%至1,062億元人民幣。該行認為,中行有望透過資產質量改業強化資產負債表、個人金融業務改革成效顯現及新機遇業務收入高速增長優化損益表,以達到估值提升。該行指出,中行2019年下半年開始推進零售組織架構層面改革,去年開放全量資產考核驅動私行財富管理業務發展,零售改革成效在去年上半年已開始顯現,今年首季手續費增長顯示戰略有效執行。
摩根大通估計中行今年上半年按年多賺8%至1,089.46億人民幣,料收入升6.1%,估計其今年第二季純利按年升14%至549.57億人民幣,料收入升6%z,料第二季淨息差1.78厘(按年收窄5個基點及按季持平),料成本收入比率30.16%(按年跌139個基點),估計其第二季股本回報率10.9%,按年升94個基點,料不良貸款比率按年降12個基點至1.29%。
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本網綜合4間券商預測,中行2021年上半年純利料介乎1,057.89億至1,089.46億元人民幣,較2020年同期1,009.17億元人民幣,按年上升4.8%至8%;中位數1,064.31億人民幣,按年升5.5%。
券商│2021年上半年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
摩根大通│1,089.46億元│+8%
里昂│1,066.73億元│+5.7%
中金│1,061.89億元│+5.2%
建銀國際│1,057.89億元│+4.8%
按中行2020年上半年純利1,009.17億元人民幣計算
綜合5間券商預測,中行2021年上半年收入料介乎3,007.58億至3,064.98億元人民幣,較2020年同期2,869.83億人民幣,按年上升4.8%至6.8%;中位數3,034.7億人民幣,按年升5.7%。
券商│2021年上半年收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
瑞銀│3,064.98億元│+6.8%
摩根大通│3,045.67億元│+6.1%
美銀證券│3,034.7億元│+5.7%
建銀國際│3,022.66億元│+5.3%
中金│3,007.58億元│+4.8%
按中行2020年上半年收入2,869.83億人民幣計算
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