《大行報告》中金:騰訊及美團在恆指權重將增最多 阿里權重降最多 料17股或納港股通
中金發表報告表示,就恆生指數公司上周五(20日)公布指數調整結果,作為港股通投資範圍基礎的恆生綜合指數也在此次發布的半年度調整結果,恆指將擴容至60隻,加入招商銀行(03968.HK)、信義玻璃(00868.HK)、李寧(02331.HK),料相關股份影響正面,及對遭將剔出的交行(03328.HK)料可能受到衝擊,調整將在9月6日生效。
該行指,恆生指數此次調整將納入招行、李寧和信義玻璃,納入權重分別為2.02%、1.65%及0.48%,料潛在被動資金流入各4.22億、3.44億及1億美元;剔除交行,剔除前權重為0.33%(料潛在被動資金流出6,890萬美元)。調整後成份股數量由58隻增加至60隻。
除此之外,騰訊(00700.HK)和美團(03690.HK)權重增加最多,分別為1.87%及0.75%,料潛在被動資金流入各3.9億、1.57億美元;阿里巴巴(09988.HK)和友邦(01299.HK)權重下降最多,分別為1.31及0.56個百分點,料潛在被動資金流出各2.73億、1.17億美元。
【騰訊權重增加 阿里權重下降】
基於當前彭博匯總,追縱恆指ETF資金規模約209億美元,追縱國指及恆生科指的ETF資金規模各約43億和5.6億美元,結合上述成份股權重變化,進一步結合個股過去3個月日均成交額,就恆指方面,被動資金流入所時間最多的招行、信義玻璃及李寧,預計需要各3.7天、2.5天和.9天不等;所需交易被動資金流出中,預計交行需要4.4天,匯控(00005.HK)及中電(00002.HK)也分別需要0.9天0.7天。由於阿里巴巴和友邦的權重比例從調整前的9.3%和8.6%重置至8%,因此預計將帶來2.7億和1.2億美元的資金流出。
中金指,恆指擴容後,非必需及必需要消費板塊、其他(工業、能源業、原材料和綜合企業)和金融業的覆蓋度此次有所提升,覆蓋度分別增加2.9、2.6和1.8個百分點,各至36.3%、34.4%及77.6%。新經濟佔比方面,在上述指數調整後,恆指、國指中新經濟佔比均進一步提升。具體來看,恆指新經濟板塊佔比從調整前40.5%提升至41.3%,必需消費和醫療保健行業佔比分別提升1.8和1.3個百分點。
【新經濟佔比上升 港股通或調整】
此次指數審議也適逢恆生綜合指數半年度指數審議(一年調整兩次,分別為6月和12月底為截至止日期),需這又將成為隨後滬深交易所決定港股通可投資範圍的主要依據,據恆生綜指調整情況,並結合港股通納入的額外要求,該行料17家公司可能符合納入港股通的投資範圍,料包括福萊特(06865.HK)、時代天使(06699.HK)、開拓藥業(09939.HK)、和黃醫藥(00013.HK)、奈雪的茶(02150.HK)、阜博(03738.HK)、基口藥業(02616.HK)、科濟藥業(02171.HK)、聯易融科技(09959.HK)、優然牧業(09858.HK)、攜程(09961.HK)、香港科技探索(01137.HK)、金川國際(02362.HK)、朝雲集團(06601.HK)、百融雲(06608.HK)、卜蜂國際(00043.HK)、賽生藥業(06600.HK)。其中,百融雲雖進入恆生綜指小型股指數,但由於港股市值不足50億港元,或暫無法納入港股通。(wl/s)
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