恆指數公司將公佈季檢結果,中金稱網易、京東等八股有機會“染藍”
資料來源:中金
恆生指數服務公司將於今日(20日)公佈今年第二季指數檢討結果,據中金於7月25日發表報告作出的預測,基於當時可得數據及指數調整方法,特別是通過一季度調整結果對系統性優化後的編制方法的理解和驗證,該行估計京東(9618.HK)、快手(1024.HK)、網易(9999.HK)、百度(9888.HK)、京東健康(6618.HK)、思摩爾(6969.HK)、嗶哩嗶哩(9626.HK)及京東物流(2618.HK)均排在恆生指數順位前例,有可能成爲被納入潛在候選者。
該行指,由於京東和網易等大市值公司排名靠,但過去幾次的調整中卻都未能被納入,因此不能排除是因其他非量化指標的考量所限,進而在此次調整中繼續影響其納入。不過,仍需指出的是,恆指調整並非完全根據量化指標,而是指數諮詢委員會根據量化篩後於內部討論決定的,可能會對行業代表性、上市地代表性以及財務表等作出主觀判斷,同時還考慮到此前基本編制方法還在持續優化中,因此上述預覽結果要想做到完全精準並不現實,只能作爲一個近似參考。
此外,從潛在權重變化上,基於當時指數成份股實際權重,友邦(1299.HK)權重爲8.07%,超過8%權重上,可能會被小幅下調,進而帶來潛在被動資金流出。
中金指,據恆指公司3月發佈諮詢結果,恆生指數成份股將在2022年中前增加至80只,最終固定在100只。雖然恆指公司沒有說明具體實施路線圖,但第一季成份股已增加3只至58只,擴容趨勢已顯現,因此,此次恆指成份股數量大概率進一步增加。同時,在成份股進一步擴容後,該行料部分行業的覆蓋率也將隨之擴大。
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