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穆迪預期液化天然氣價格高企不會抑制長期需求
評級機構穆迪表示,東北亞市場液化天然氣自夏季起始日7月1日起計算,均價於8月11日創出自2016年以來新高,預計今年液化天然氣均價將遠高於2019和2020年。 穆迪指,雖然液化天然氣價格飆升,將暫時減弱交通運輸和發電等終端用戶市場的需求,但中國政府能源政策傾向於更多地使用天然氣,因此長期需求仍存在。此外,大部分液化天然氣交易屬長期合同,令價格較現貨價更穩定。 液化天然氣價格上漲有可能導致供應增加,最終將拉低價格,但穆迪預期短期內發生這種情況的可能性不大,又提到由於中國政府已設定明確的碳轉型目標,液化天然氣價格上漲削弱中國天然氣行業長期增長的可能性不大。 該行認為長期需求增長,中國三大國家石油公司中石油(00857.HK)、中石化(00386.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)為配合政府碳轉型路線圖,已轉為重點投資天然氣領域,對其具有正面信用影響。
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