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中信:堅定看好中芯國際和華虹半導體

來源:中信證券研究

從基本面來看,中芯國際和華虹半導體今年業績有望持續高增長

我們預計兩家公司Q2單季度業績均有望達到此前業績指引區間上限附近,中芯國際Q2收入同比增速有望達40%,環比增速19%左右,華虹半導體Q2收入同比增速有望達到50%,環比增速10%以上;我們預計中芯國際、華虹半導體下半年收入逐季度環比成長,全年收入同比增長有望分別達到30%、40%左右。

從產能和景氣度來看,2022年產能預定仍然非常緊張

我們近期瞭解到,芯片設計公司與晶圓廠已經開始溝通2022年產能,仍處於供不應求狀態。中芯國際和華虹半導體以國內芯片設計客戶爲主,晶圓廠產能釋放(平均每年20%左右產能增幅)跟不上國內芯片設計公司需求增長(芯片設計公司產能需求增長遠超20%),我們認爲高景氣度2022年大概率延續。兩家公司後續均有持續擴產計劃,產能端持續成長,產能緊張狀況下ASP亦有望上行。

2021年,中芯國際8英寸月產能有望從23.5萬片擴產至年底至少28萬片,增幅約19%;12英寸月產能有望從12.7萬片擴產至年底至少13.7萬片,增幅約8%。

華虹半導體8英寸月產能維持約17.8萬片,12寸月產能有望從2萬片擴產至6.5萬片,明年擴至8萬片,2021年總產能增幅有望達到40%以上,是2021年全球產能釋放最爲充分的晶圓廠之一。

從工藝能力來看,中芯國際和華虹半導體工藝進展迅速

華虹半導體在模擬芯片、射頻芯片(SOI工藝)、MCU芯片、存儲芯片(NOR Flash等)、CIS工藝進步較大,包括聖邦股份、卓勝微、兆易創新、芯海科技等國產廠商均在進行工藝開發合作。中芯國際在先進製程方面持續研發,代表了中國大陸自主研發集成電路的最先進水平,瑞芯微、紫光展銳等國產廠商積極採用,成熟製程方面開發特色工藝,模擬芯片、面板驅動IC、CIS、射頻芯片等方面需求持續旺盛。隨着新工藝平臺的導入和營運效率的改善,公司ASP後續有望繼續提升。

從估值來看,港股中芯國際當前僅1.6倍PB,華虹半導體僅2.6倍PB,對比臺系廠商(臺積電8.4倍、世界先進5.8倍、聯電2.7倍)和A股均具有較大空間

此前美國製裁對中芯國際的股價具有一定壓制影響,若後續中美重啓對話,則是較爲有利的變化,若中美不重啓對話,仍是戰略發展重點。中芯國際和華虹半導體是中國大陸規模最大的兩家半導體制造企業,代表了中國大陸硅基半導體工藝製造的最高水平,具有極強的國家戰略地位,堅定看好。

風險因素

下遊需求低於預期,制裁加劇風險,人才流失風險等。

投資策略

缺貨和國產化是2021年半導體投資重要主線,有產能釋放的晶圓廠受益於產能和ASP的雙重增長,供應鏈本土化趨勢下,國內芯片設計客戶的快速成長,國內晶圓廠相應受益並快速推進工藝合作。半導體制造頭部企業在國內半導體產業鏈具有核心地位,也是未來戰略發展重點,推薦中芯國際和華虹半導體。

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