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《大行報告》匯豐研究首予東方海外(00316.HK)「買入」評級 籲續加倉海豐國際(01308.HK)及中遠海控(01919.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告,指航運板塊在過去一年史無前例暴漲(升幅達104%至1,316%)後,即使運費連續數週上調,及市場因應盈喜接連上調盈測,近期板塊股價仍跑輸大市,自7月初高位累跌6%至25%。該行歸咎於監管不明朗(美國總統拜登簽署行政命令)以及在訂單增加下盈利增長動力近見頂。報告形容,現時是時候考慮是否「抖一抖氣」,繼續參與,還是更具選擇性揀股。

報告指出,未來十二個月航運業料更強,但隨後風險升溫。參考中國出口集裝箱運價指數(CCFI)本季至今較次季均值高出25%,報告料第三季航運業表現較首季或次季爲佳。由於鹽田港擠塞帶來的漣漪效應,該行續相信現貨運費(上海出口集裝箱運價指數,SCFI)持續上升,或最少持續高企。匯豐研究亦引述臺灣長榮海運在最近AGM稱,指第三季業務有望勝過次季,倘港口擠塞持續,第四季業務有望延續第三季強勢。

報告續稱,由於名義運力供應增長僅3%,加州港口工運帶來潛在幹擾,以及港口擠塞溢出效應等,報告料航運業明年盈利有望高於市場預期。不過,2023年行業風險正上升,因新貨輪訂單增加,港口擠塞紓緩,以及需求正常化。然而,該行認爲監管不明朗對行業短至中期影響僅屬輕微。

匯豐研究表示,航運業增長勢頭仍強勁,但自明年末季起料放緩。該行料所覆蓋航運股運費今年升41%,高於原先預測。因此,上調行業2021至2022年EBITDA預測15%,上調盈測23%。

該行稱,仍喜好行業大部分股份,但建議對長榮海運及Hapag-Lloyd(評級各降至持有)持觀望態度;並持續加倉馬士基(Maersk)及海豐國際(01308.HK),以及特別是中遠海控(01919.HK)及東方海外國際(00316.HK)。該行首予東方海外「買入」評級,目標價250元,估算其股息率最高,在所覆蓋航運股間估值最低。詳細評級及目標價見另表。

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