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植耀輝: 聯儲局議息成焦點 港股恐續反覆試低位 「避險」中資電訊股料跑贏
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周表現理想,三大指數均上升超過1%,並創歷史新高,當中道指更突破35,000點關口,收報35,061點,科技股亦表現理想,不過本周科技巨企將陸續公布季績,表現好壞或會對美股帶來影響,同時聯儲局本周議息會議,其對前景之看法以及會否有收水之部署,對大市亦會有一定啟示。

港股方面,雖然全周計下跌682點或2.4%,但不少板塊表現卻相當不濟,教育股更是跌市重災區,主要受政策因素影響。另外早前強勢之體育用品股沽壓亦見沉重,科技股則弱勢未改,部分股份如快手(01024.HK)更跌至上市後新低。正如上周指出,由於投資氣氛仍相當審慎,加上市場缺乏利好消息,恐怕大市有較大機會考驗27,200點甚至7月9日之低位亦即26,800點水平。

板塊方面,則不可不提中資電訊股。在市況不穩下,資金轉移部署防守性股份,中資電訊股頓成為資金避難所,畢竟業務穩定及擁有強勁現金流,加上中移動(00941.HK)及中電信(00728.HK)有回歸A股概念,短期表現料仍可跑贏大市,建議可繼續持有相關板塊及股份。

(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)

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恆指重要支持位26,861點

耀才研究部稱,上周五(23日)美股全線向上,三大指數再破頂,市場憧憬業績利好,資金吸納增長型新經濟股,以及觀望聯儲局本周公布議息結果及會後聲明。港股黑期則再度下挫,預料恆指需再度下試近期低位26,861點。內地對科網及教育股監管持續,其中要求騰訊(00700.HK)解除騰訊音樂獨家版權、停止高額預付金等版權費用支付方式、無正當理由不得要求上游版權方給予優於競爭對手的條件等;教育股方面,學科類培訓機構一律不得上市融資,嚴禁資本化運作;同時上市公司不得通過股票市場融資投資學科類培訓機構,不得通過發行股份或支付現金等方式購買學科類培訓機構資產。投資者需避免政策重災區「撈底」。

恆指本周最高只能反彈至27,759點水平,造成一浪低於一浪的格局,於周五日線圖中更出現「穿頭破腳」之格局收市,投資者可以先以7月9日低位26,861點作為重要市況參考指標,以確認真正跌穿的時刻。

(筆者為證監會持牌人)~

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