《大行報告》瑞銀下調太陽能玻璃價格預測 降信義光能(00968.HK)及福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)目標價
瑞銀髮表研究報告,指國家工信部印發修訂後的《水泥玻璃行業產能置換實施辦法》,自8月1日起施行,與去年12月諮詢稿相若,太陽能玻璃被剔出產能轉換政策。此外,部門要求引進預警機制,防止任何產能供應過剩,評估項目需要性時需要進行公衆諮詢,以及符合能源消耗、環保及技術標準。
報告稱,預期放寬產能限制及潛在大量新供應將壓抑太陽能玻璃價格。據該行供求關係模型,年底太陽能玻璃產能料由今年的每日5.1萬噸增加至明年的每日7萬噸,意味按年增幅達36%,2023年進一步增至每日8.6萬噸,按年續升23%,跑贏2022至2023年需求增長預測。但該行相信實際供應將略少於該行預期,因在現時低價及不吸引盈利能力下,一些新生產線的生產已放緩甚至暫停。該行亦估計總產能之中有約30%(約1.3萬噸產能),以低於每日500至600噸產出運行,成本高企但效益低下,料逐漸被淘汰。
瑞銀表示,料太陽能玻璃價格走勢今年下半年輕微向上,在需求復甦下,3.2毫米太陽能玻璃料由現時每平方米22元人民幣,升至下半年每平方米介乎24至25元人民幣。在供需關係緩和下,明年料維持每平方米介乎23至24元人民幣。該行料信義光能(00968.HK)及福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)在成本上維持優勢,毛利率可領先同業介乎10%至15%。長遠而言該行料上述兩企可維持穩定市佔。
報告稱,爲反映該行下調太陽能玻璃今明兩年價格預測,降信義光能2021至2023年每股盈測介乎3%至6%,目標價由25.3元降至23元,評級「買入」;並降福萊特玻璃同期每股盈測介乎4%至13%,H股目標價由45元降至43元,評級「買入」。福萊特玻璃H股現估值相當於明年預測市盈率18.7倍,較福萊特玻璃A股(601865.SH)及信義光能吸引。
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