《大行報告》大和下調中國平安(02318.HK)目標價至78元 評級「持有」
大和發表研究報告,指中國平安(02318.HK)經銷團隊改革仍未見曙光,其首年保費收入、新業務價值等重要指標均令人失望,而且資產端的擔憂亦見增加,並相信在上市同業間,即將推進的「償二代」會是最不利好公司的資本狀況。
該行指,6月份平安的個人新業務按年跌12%,屆6月底代理人數按月減少4%,按半年減少16%,認為是市場環境平淡及公司自身策略所致,不過符該行早前認為改革需時的預期。大和重申對公司改革感失望,因公司過分側重壽險代理交叉銷售其他產品;其產品與代理質素未見與其他同行有很大差異;過份進取及短視的激勵機制,在今年上半年緊縮周期帶來數次監管風波;以及科技基建未見有效等。考慮以上因素,相信)經銷團隊積弱會於下半年持續。
大和料上半年平安新業務價值按年錄8%跌幅,跑輸同業預期跌6%;上半年稅後經營溢利按年料增14%;上半年純利料增12%,跑輸同業預期升22%。即使首季「開門紅」勢頭強勁,該行下調平安今年新業務價值預測至按年跌3%,預期管理層將下調指引由「正增長」降至「負增長」。報告上調平安今年每股盈測4%,以反映附屬平安銀行(000001.SZ)盈利增加及股本投資收益穩固,但被地產投資撥備增加及利率下降所抵銷,維持予平安「持有」評級,目標價由90元降至78元。
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