《大行報告》匯豐研究下調澳門賭業股目標價 首選金沙中國(01928.HK)
匯豐研究發表的報告指,由於廣東省被剔出高風險地區名單,澳門在7月10日起放寬廣東省旅客的限制,而澳門旅客每日旅客量自6月份的約1萬人復甦至約2萬人,令當地重返復甦態勢。不過,另一城市瑞麗則被加入名單,7月4-6日當地錄21宗新增本地確診,部分涉高傳播力的Delta病毒株,相信內地對重開關口維持謹慎態度,意味將影響整體旅遊氣氛。而港澳旅遊氣泡估計將成另一催化劑,但除了時間表上仍存在不確定性外,其出行要求短期亦會限制香港旅客的需求。
市場預期今年澳門博彩收入將相當於2019年的50%,意味下半年需要回復至2019年時的67%水平,故認為與香港通關的上行因素已反映,行業股價對潛在放寬旅遊的正面消息反應不大,而疫情反覆亦令投資者對澳門復甦前景存疑。
該行指出次季澳門博彩收入按季升7%,相當於2019年的34%,估計中場復甦快過貴賓廳,並料新濠博亞按季將錄最大改善,主要因為今年首季其基數較低。該行料受監管對高端需求帶來影響,料復甦之路將有較多障礙,將2021年收入預測平均降18%,EBITDA預測則平均降26%,同時下調2022/23年預測,現時對澳門2022/23年博彩收入預測相當於2019年時的76%及85%。總體而言,目標價平均降15%,以反映盈利預測下調的影響。
該行認為行業股價將維持窄幅上落,首選維持金沙中國(01928.HK),目標價37.3元,評級「買入」,主要考慮到公司在中場的覆蓋、房間庫存及估值。新濠博亞(MLCO.US)評級由「買入」降至「持有」,目標價16.9美元,認為公司在澳門的高端業務及國際業務面對較多不確定性。(el/u) ~
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