瑞信:對內銀板塊維持正面看法 首選招行(3968.HK)和平安銀行(000001.SZ)
瑞信發表研究報吿指,中央早前釋放降準信號及提到穩定降低綜合融資成,中國10年期國債收益率下跌6個基點,該行認為市場反應過度,並指是很好的買入機會,對內銀板塊維持正面看法,首選招行(3968.HK)和平安銀行(000001.SZ)。
瑞信表示,將中央的信息簡單地視為大力的放寬和進一步的淨息差收窄,但前提是無強力刺激,貨幣政策穩定,又認為暗示定向降準而非普遍降準的可能性更大,這與近年來的政策立場屬一致。第二季的主要市場利率非常穩定,無跡象表明市場流動性偏緊。
該行指,近期中資銀行的情緒低迷,指出悲觀的觀點無根據,而最近從與銀行的交流中留意到,監管機構對今年貸款收益率的容忍度更高,個人貸款增長較快,資產質量穩定,財富管理的趨勢仍然強勁。
該行又指,對今年行業盈利復甦充滿信心,行業得到整體經濟復甦的有力支持,基本面正在改善中。今年首季行業的淨息差為2.07%,相信是今年的低位。在負債成本下降的前提下,實體經濟的融資成本將進一步下降,同時經濟轉弱可能導致今年下半年有更多信貸政策支持,將利好銀行資產擴張,現階段無理由對中資銀行失去信心。
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