《大行報告》中金升中遠海控(01919.HK)目標價至23.77元 短期業績確定性仍強
中金發表報告,指蘇伊士運河堵塞和鹽田港疫情對運力造成擾動並產生連鎖反應,需求持續旺盛情況下使運力和集裝箱再度偏緊,歐線運價從4月企穩回升並且漲到超過前高,體現了全球供應鏈,運輸環節整體處於緊平衡和脆弱的狀態。疊加合同貨重新簽約生效,帶動第二季中遠海控(01919.HK)業績增長。
中金指,全球整體的集運需求增速趨勢並未因為疫情出現明顯變化,但其中結構差異明顯,因此導致運力的結構性緊張。該行認為,當前集運產業鏈供需緊張的核心在於美線強需求以及由此導致的供應鏈運行效率。從短期來看,運價有望維持相對強勢,為中遠海控第三季業績帶來確定性。
中金認為,集運行業在全球貿易摩擦,低硫油限制,新冠疫情等多個外部衝擊的情況下,行業能夠有序應對,龍頭公司依然盈利,體現的是從2016年以來新一輪行業整合後整體競爭格局結構性改善的結果。而集中度大幅提升,龍頭公司戰略從份額擴張轉向產業鏈上下游延伸。在新的供需關係條件下運價中樞水平將顯著高於2016年至2019年低迷期間的水平。
中金提到,由於外貿集運市場高景氣的持續性超出預期,且下半年新長協價或逐步體現,上調2021年盈利預測24%至747.91億元,上調2022年盈利預測15%至269.2億元,維持AH股「跑嬴行業」評級。A股目標價上調21%至41.72元人民幣,對應7倍2021年市盈率。H股目標價上調24%至23.77元,對應5倍2021年市盈率。
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