《大行報告》高盛降中興(00763.HK)及京信通信(02342.HK)評級至「沽售」 下調長飛光纖光纜(06869.HK)至「中性」
高盛發表研究報告指，考慮未來數季內地5G展望疲軟，對內地電訊設備供應鏈維持審慎看法，即使該行預期供應鏈持續享受可觀盈利增長，由於股價上行空間有限，高盛下調中興通訊(00763.HK)H股、長飛光纖光纜(06869.HK)H股及京信通信(02342.HK)投資評級，中興、京信通信投資評級由「中性」降至「沽售」，長飛光纖光纜H股評級由「買入」下調至「中性」。中興H股目標價由22.7元降至21.7元；京信通信目標價由2.15元降至1.75元；長飛光纖光纜H股目標價由15元降至10.5元。
報告稱，考慮到5G基站設備要求降級，中興在面對去年次季至今年首季高基數下，料今年次季至明年首季純利增長將放緩；考慮競爭加劇壓抑消費者銷售增長等，該行並下調其2021至2023年度收入預測分別2%、5%及6%，純利預測分別降5%、14%及18%。
高盛續稱，仍認爲京信通信是中國5G小型基地臺室內普及的受惠者，不過，普及進展較預期慢。中國正以室外5G普及爲優先，5G小型基地臺尚未展開中央招標。據該行供應鏈調查，料明年纔開始大規模付運，現時5G小型基地臺僅屬省級層面小規模付運。該行並下調京信通信2021至2023年小型基地臺對收入佔比預測至分別8%、18%及21%(原先爲23%、25%及28%)。高盛下調京信通信2021至2023年收入預測分別7%、1%及1%，純利預測分別降29%、2%及3%。
報告補充，光纖行業已經歷兩年下行週期，銷售均價在2019至2020年間累跌65%，絕大部分小型生產商未能達到收支平衡。行業自2019年起停止添置新產能。由於小型生產商退出市場，料供求平衡逐漸恢復，5G展望疲軟下，價格將逐漸復甦。該行料內地光纖價格明年復甦10%。該行料長飛光纖光纜盈利谷底反彈幅度溫和。考慮光纖價格復甦低於預期，下調長飛光纖光纜2021至2023年各年收入預測各1%，並下調純利預測分別18%、8%及6%。
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