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中國電信(0728.HK)調整派息政策點評:利潤成長確定性以及股息率吸引力增強 A股上市漸近催化價值重估
格隆匯 06-25 00:00
事件:6月21日公司宣佈調整派息政策,2021年度現金分紅比例不低於60%,A股發行上市後三年內,現金分紅比例逐步提升至70%以上。同時自2022年起宣派中期股息。公司派息比例提升直接抬升股息率,有望驅動價值重估。 C端業務邊際改善邏輯正在強化,ARPU有望維持上升態勢:1Q21移動業務收入同比增長8.1%,移動ARPU同比增長2.7%。我們預計C端ARPU有望延續上升態勢,主要基於:1)存量用户價值化運營爭;2)更高ARPU的5G用户滲透率進一步提升;3)未來高清視頻等特定5G應用套餐,相比傳統通用型套餐具備顯著更高的價值貢獻。 堅定推動B端模式轉型,預計21年B端收入增速超20%:公司全面實施“雲改數轉”戰略,以5G和云為核心打造雲網融合的新型信息基礎設施、運營支撐體系。我們認為中國電信在B端產業互聯網市場具備三大優勢:1)雲網融合服務能力,公司同時具備雲基礎服務及5G專網服務能力;2)政企客户資源優勢,公司有望通過5G專網率先觸達客户,同時電信天翼雲有望持續受益信創趨勢,在中國雲基礎服務市場佔據一席之地;3)具備硬件集成、軟件外包的產業鏈整合型服務能力。公司客户廣泛覆蓋政務、金融、工業、社會民生、中小企業等行業,5G+產業互聯網典型項目投資回報率預計超20%。我們預計2021年B端政企業務收入同比增長超20%,後續有望延續快速增長趨勢。 盈利預測、估值與評級:基於C端ARPU提升幅度及趨勢持續性有望超預期,我們對公司盈利前景更加樂觀,分別上調21-22年淨利潤預測16%/16%至251/277億人民幣,對應同比增速分別為20.4%/10.3%,新增2023年淨利潤預測305億人民幣,對應同比增速10.2%。同時考慮到公司擬A股上市增發股份以及派系政策調整影響,當前價2.72港幣對應21-23年股息率分別為7.2%、8.6%、9.9%,與中國移動當前股息率已基本相當,高於中國聯通,股息率吸引力顯著增強。5G時代運營商行業呈現出一定成長性,依託C端業務邊際改善、B端創新業務打開新的市場空間、疊加自身市場化機制改革;行業屬性切換有望驅動板塊全面價值重估機會。中國電信在公司治理優化以及B端業務更加積極轉型有利於提振其5G時代利潤釋放的確定性,維持“買入”評級,基於DDM估值法,維持目標價4.3港幣。 風險提示:資金配置風格切換,企業內部市場化改革不及預期,B端業務放緩。
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