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《大行報告》中金料內地食品飲料業受益內循環加速及消費升級 H股看好青啤、農夫山泉及周黑鴨
中金髮表報告,認爲食品飲料行業有望長期受益於內循環加速和消費升級趨勢,並看好板塊長期穩健增長前景。另更新今年下半年內地食品飲料業投資組合,H股方面選擇爲青啤(00168.HK)、農夫山泉(09633.HK)、周黑鴨(01458.HK)。

展望今年下半年,中金建議投資者關注四條主線,包括不斷享受消費升級和集中度提升的高端和次高端白酒龍頭;高景氣度食品飲料賽道,例如餐飲供應鏈上的速凍食品、預製菜等;原材料成本上行背景下,具備提價能力的板塊,例如白酒、啤酒、調味品等;去年業績受疫情衝擊今年逐季恢復的企業。

白酒方面,中金料延續集中分化趨勢,品牌效應強化龍頭地位,高端白酒高景氣度延續,繼續看好茅臺、五糧液、瀘州老窖;次高端享受消費升級和渠道擴張紅利以及去年低基數,今年業績高彈性。醬酒熱利於次高端價位擴容,也增加次高端競爭。

啤酒方面,中金認爲短期疫苗接種旺季將負面影響飲酒量,但世界級賽事仍可帶動夏季銷量,今年行業結構升級加快,10元價位未來將成最大擴容點。軟飲料需求持續復甦,中長期看好能量飲料,包裝水,氣泡水等高景氣賽道。

乳製品方面,中金預計高基數下今年次季乳企銷售增長短期承壓,但下半年有望繼續復甦,長期建議關注低溫鮮奶,奶酪等新品類。而調味品方面,高庫存、渠道結構變遷以及成本壓力之下,行業短期基本面略有波動。

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