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《大行报告》麦格理:内地放宽三孩政策 从「结得起、生得起及养得起」准则挑选受惠股
阿思达克 06-03 14:34
麦格理发表的研究报告指,内地将二孩政策放宽至三孩短期不会提升生育率,认为政策应聚焦於鼓励结婚,并降低生育、育儿及教育成本,而短期料线上社交网络、家电、电动车、孕妇及坐月等为受惠行业。

该行指出对内地宣布放宽三孩政策不感意外,早前该行的团队分析显示内地面对低生育率及高龄化问题,不过二孩政策後生育率维持低位,意味放宽生育限制无助提升生育数字,同时该行认为政策应由「放宽生育」转向「鼓励生育」,所以应针对支持结婚、鼓励增加生育数字及支持育儿。

麦格理认为在「结得起」的角度来说,内地由於结婚成本高昂令注册结婚数字持续下降,除酒席外亦要负担高额聘礼,同时内地离婚率亦急增,为生育率带来了障碍。为降低结婚成本,政府可以不鼓励相关习俗,并继续缓和楼价,假如结婚率提升,新能源车销售及家电品牌或会受惠,另外社交网络平台亦可为年轻一代提供约会、婚嫁渠道。

在「生得起」的角度来说,内地可提升成功受孕率,由於已生二孩的女性相信年龄已难生第三胎,故提供生殖药物的公司如白云山(00874.HK)及丰原药业(000153.SZ)等。此外亦要提升生育意欲,意味是教育、住屋及就业等,之前有调查显示逾半家庭表示二孩政策推出後愿再生一胎,但有51.3%人表示无时间养育,故料提供婴儿照顾的公司及产後服务的爱帝宫(00286.HK)等将受惠。

在「养得起」的角度来说,该行相信受惠高龄化的企业将优先受惠,包括是恒安国际(01044.HK)、H&H国际控股(01112.HK)、美的(000333.SZ),或是派递服务较强的公司如高鑫零售(06808.HK)等。主要幼儿品牌如中国飞鹤(06186.HK)、澳优(01717.HK)等亦将受惠。

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