《大行報告》麥格理：內地放寬三孩政策 從「結得起、生得起及養得起」準則挑選受惠股
麥格理發表的研究報告指，內地將二孩政策放寬至三孩短期不會提升生育率，認為政策應聚焦於鼓勵結婚，並降低生育、育兒及教育成本，而短期料線上社交網絡、家電、電動車、孕婦及坐月等為受惠行業。
該行指出對內地宣布放寬三孩政策不感意外，早前該行的團隊分析顯示內地面對低生育率及高齡化問題，不過二孩政策後生育率維持低位，意味放寬生育限制無助提升生育數字，同時該行認為政策應由「放寬生育」轉向「鼓勵生育」，所以應針對支持結婚、鼓勵增加生育數字及支持育兒。
麥格理認為在「結得起」的角度來說，內地由於結婚成本高昂令註冊結婚數字持續下降，除酒席外亦要負擔高額聘禮，同時內地離婚率亦急增，為生育率帶來了障礙。為降低結婚成本，政府可以不鼓勵相關習俗，並繼續緩和樓價，假如結婚率提升，新能源車銷售及家電品牌或會受惠，另外社交網絡平台亦可為年輕一代提供約會、婚嫁渠道。
在「生得起」的角度來說，內地可提升成功受孕率，由於已生二孩的女性相信年齡已難生第三胎，故提供生殖藥物的公司如白雲山(00874.HK)及豐原藥業(000153.SZ)等。此外亦要提升生育意欲，意味是教育、住屋及就業等，之前有調查顯示逾半家庭表示二孩政策推出後願再生一胎，但有51.3%人表示無時間養育，故料提供嬰兒照顧的公司及產後服務的愛帝宮(00286.HK)等將受惠。
在「養得起」的角度來說，該行相信受惠高齡化的企業將優先受惠，包括是恆安國際(01044.HK)、H&H國際控股(01112.HK)、美的(000333.SZ)，或是派遞服務較強的公司如高鑫零售(06808.HK)等。主要幼兒品牌如中國飛鶴(06186.HK)、澳優(01717.HK)等亦將受惠。
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