《大行報告》高盛降新東方在線(01797.HK)評級至「沽售」 下調新東方-S(09901.HK)目標價至110元
高盛發表的研究報告指,對內地課後補習行業看法維持正面,不過該行將新東方在線(01797.HK)收入預測下調,以反映監管環境等對課後補習行業的影響,其中該行將線上大班補習收入預測下調,並將「東方優播」收入預測下調,主要因為公司將焦點放在經營效率上,暫時計劃2022財年不進入新的城市。
另一方面受補習費管理要求改變,在經營現金式淨現金方面需調整,該行將公司2021-25財年收入預測降5-18%,估計到2024財年將扭虧,而2022-23財年虧損則收窄。該行將公司目標價由18元降至10.5元,評級由「中性」降至「沽售」,以反映公司估值高於同業。該行予新東方(09901.HK)「買入」評級,目標價由112元降至110元。
該行指出,現時仍在等待監管方面的決定,但料2020-25年行業的年複合增長率將降至9%,短期新學校審批嚴格將影響供應,長遠而言課後補習入場門檻有機會顯著提升,拖累線下規模及線上收生增長減慢。另外長遠來看補習需求或受影響,主要因為在校課後服務增加及收生改革持續。此外該行估計線上課後補習減慢情況將較線下嚴重,主要因為相關業務依賴投資,收生、留客方面亦有更大壓力。
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