《大行報告》高盛下調新東方-S(09901.HK)目標價至112元 剔出「確信買入」名單
高盛發表研究報告,指隨著山西省政府、北京教育部委嚴厲措施出台,以及據報國家主席習近平簽發義務教育階段減少學生功課負擔及課後補習負擔的意見後,內地課後補習股過去一個月持續下滑。該行稱,合理預期行業增速將放緩至較原先預期為慢,考慮近期供應干擾(新學校審批要求收緊);長期供應限制將大幅提升課後補習機構准入門檻(以現金流角度而言),或致線下容量/線上招生增長放緩;此外,由於校內課後服務擴張及更趨豐富,持續學校收生改革,對課後補習長期需求帶來影響,特別是科目補習需求。
報告稱,上述措施料拖慢行業增長,料課後補習公司之間分野更大,由於小型同業難以符合更嚴格規管,行業龍頭如好未來(TAL.US)及新東方(09901.HK)市佔增長料加快。該行料新東方及好未來在2020至2025年間每年市佔擴張分別0.6及1個百分點,較2015至2020年間每年擴大0.4及0.7個百分點加快。
高盛表示,以三個假設情境推算潛在政策影響,其悲觀/基本/樂觀情境估算課後補習滲透率,由2020年的39%,調整至2025年分別37%、42%及47%,意味行業2020至2025年間年均複合增長分別6%、9%及11%。
報告將新東方剔出「確信買入」名單,但考慮近期股價調整後風險回報相對吸引,維持予好未來及新東方「買入」評級。該行下調新東方H股目標價由156元降至112元,並降好未來目標價由80美元下調至53美元。
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