植耀輝: 五窮月不算「窮」 再談恆指季檢
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,截至昨日(24日)收市計,恆指五月份僅下跌312點,反映「五窮月」不算「好窮」,即將踏入6絕月又能否打破宿命呢?統計自2000年至今恆指6月表現,上升機率較高,約為六四之比;但值得留意的是,在8次跌市當中,6次殺傷力相當大,最細跌幅亦達到4.2%,其中2008年6月累跌便接近一成!但過去兩年(2019年及2020年)恆指6月表現又相當強勢,累升均超過6%。由於港股波動區間持續收窄,可以預期隨時出現「爆」單邊的市況,面對可能出現之波動市況,6月份大家也要扣好安全帶了。
亦值得再花部分篇幅談談恆指季檢。通常每次季檢前,坊間均會嘗試推測那隻可「染藍」。在恆指進行大規模改革之前,命中率其實相當高,皆因大家會用市值、成交活躍度以至行業前景推算。不過近年季檢的結果往往也是出人意表,像今次絕大部分坊間之心水股份也大熱倒灶。過往不少媒體也會在事前詢問筆者意見,今次亦不例外,惟筆者卻是潑冷水,第一句就表示「無謂估」。就以今次為例,雖然坊間專家「大包圍」,但又有哪一位能成功估中信義光能(00968.HK)?說穿了大家其實也是「估估下」,而且由於恆指數目未來將增加至80至100隻,雖然入圍股數大幅增加,但何時入圍亦更難估計。當然純以氣氛而言,今次投資者對季檢重視程度較過往為高,可能因為大市缺乏方向而憧憬會有炒作機會,但正如上文提到之情況,所以日後大家對恆指季檢,還是抱平常心應對會較好。
最後亦可談談股份表現,當然要先談藍籌新貴信義光能,筆者一向對其看法正面,惟由於光伏玻璃價格急跌以及競爭加劇,導致行業前景遭看淡。無可否認隨著多間企業新增產能陸續釋放,價格未來仍將受壓,但需求亦必然大幅增加,意味或會出現「以量補價」情況,故筆者對相關板塊看法並非太淡,亦建議投資者可繼續持有,或待12元以下再作吸納。
另外亦可留意部分績優股表現。偉易達(00303.HK)早前公布之業績表現理想,純利按年上升21.1%,當中毛利率維持在30.6%,派息比率亦恢復至近100%,以此計股息率達到8.7厘。筆者過去亦多次談論偉易達,除了持續交出不俗成績表外,管理層的管治經驗亦值得加分。建議可採取逢低增持策略,回股價回落至近75元水平可考慮入第一注貨。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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港股至今仍缺乏明確方向
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(24日)美股三大指數上升,市場對通脹憂慮降溫,美國十年期國債息率回落有利科技股表現,納指升幅較大接近1.5%。港股ADR個別發展,整體變動不大,料恆指於今早將維持窄幅上落之格局,昨日大市成交金額顯著回落,於期指結算前或許仍難以出現突破。目前較關鍵的是A股短期後市表現,昨日內地股市先跌後回穩,上証綜合指數能否於短期後市重上3,500點心理關口將是關鍵。
恆指至今仍處於上落待變之格局,指數自月中一度跌穿保歷加通道底部,但於短期馬上反彈,可惜至今仍一直受制於保歷加通道中軸之阻力,亦即是未能突破20天線,勢頭上略為偏淡。觀望整個5月份,恆指高位在5月7日高位28,884點,低位則在5月14日低位27,715點,波幅僅1,169點,此波幅一般來說較為偏小,故後市成交金額之表現將是關鍵,如成交金額能見改善,恆指於本月仍有望呈現突破。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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